Posts by victoryzeta

Quote from Sewin

EDIT: Now I see that you actually asked people to share their enchant succes in the original post, before other people misdirected the discussion to argue about the meaning of probability. I'm sorry I don't actually have any data for you because I never bothered enchanting my gear (too much grind for too low upgrade chance).

This was indeed the point of my post. I realize how small my sample size is, so I wanted to expand it. Still surprising every single example I know of has had more than 10 failures when in reality, 10 failures only have a 25% chance of happening. I'm personally at 15 and 17 failures with each having below a 10% chance of happening. It just seems very fishy so I wanted to collect more data. If it were only around 6 failures every time, the grind wouldn't be too bad and I might keep at it.

Sadly, not only are people not answering the question, but they are actively showing they don't understand how probabilities work by crying "RNG" out loud as if a 10% chance were the same as a 50% and the same as a 0.002%.

Quote from Somnambula

it works much better when you view it differently.

a 10% chance to succeed is the same as a 90% chance to fail.

(yes i am a glass half empty man, but you can never convince me 10% is half full.)

the best advice has already been given: it is RNG. might get it in 1, might not get it in 100 tries. just luck.

It's hard discussing this with people that haven't studied any probabilities...

The chance to get it in 1 is the same chance as getting it on exactly the 100th try. But once you have it, it's done, so you shouldn't count the chance to get it on exactly the 100th try. For the 100th try example, you also have to take into account the fact you could have gotten it on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd... 98th,99th or 100th try.

So actually, the chance to get it before your 100th try is 0.9^99 = 99.997%. IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN, IT'S NOT JUST RNG.

In the case of getting +7, the 50% mark is at the 7th try. So you SHOULD get it around the 7th try, sometimes a little more, sometimes a little less. (You can test this with the formula "product of 0.9-0.006*k for k=0:5")

This is actually very comparable with a dice roll (16% chance instead of 10% but it doesn't increase with fails so fairly equivalent). If you bet on one number and start throwing the dice, you will usually reach that number in 4 to 5 tries. Sometimes it will be less, sometimes more, but on average, over a large number of tests, you will get it around your 4th or 5th try. With reaching +7, it should be around the 6th or 7th try.

It's like saying yeah, getting heads or tails on a coin toss is 50% so getting heads 100 times in a row is 50%. HELL NO, that's actually almost impossible statistically.

Quote from MasterMico

Short answer: 10 % is 10% you can get it first try you can get it after 100 tires. RNG is RNG.

Yes, but they don't have the same chance of happening. Getting it first try has 10% chance while getting it after 100 tries has a 0.002% chance. RNG is RNG, what I'm questioning is whether the 10% displayed is the real chance or not, because from my experience, everyone I know seems to be unlucky, which might not just be a coincidence.

The average wants it to be 6 fails into success. I'm just wondering if that's what most people are getting on average....

The upgrade chances for +7 Kaia's Soul gear supposedly start off at 10% and increase by 0.6% at every failure, so getting an upgrade off might not seem very likely at first. However with some quick maffs, you can determine that on average, you should only get around 6 failures before having your gear upgrade.

I have tried with my weapon and gloves and have failed respectively 13 times (and still counting) and 17 times. That means they had a 14% and 6% of chances to happen, and surprisingly, as I was asking around, most people I know seemed to have had to do that many tries. So either EVERYONE I know is very unlucky, or those displayed chances are rigged in some way.

To get a better sample size, I'm turning to you. Have you guys been lucky with your upgrades? How many tries did it take you to get to your +7,+8,+9?

Definitely one of the most shameful decisions I've seen a game company make if there is no compensation in any way. A lot of companies will compensate players when they shut their servers down for a few hours which I think is very gracious but not necessary. I guess not only does Gameforge not do that, but they actively REMOVE the progress from their players. I don't care if they remove the gold earned from the issue, but what of all the rest of the time that was spent not exploiting the bug. That timeframe is the one where I'm personally the most active because I have other obligations during the day. Actively removing the progress justly earned from players is straight up a disgrace.

"Thanks for spending time with our game, but F you, F your time, keep giving us money, ty... Oh and sorry for the convenience *smile*"... that's the message I get.